信贷配给对货币政策有效性的影响

商业银行在货币政策传导机制中处于枢纽地位,其信贷配给行为的发生,一方面形成了巨额的超额准备金,另一方面造成了信贷市场的分割,其结果降低了货币政策的有效性.这在我国表现为:一方面,商业银行的信贷配给所形成的"惜贷现象"阻断了货币政策向融资企业的传导;另一方面,民营企业难以成为提高货币政策有效性的主体.从而造成了我国货币政策效果较差的后果.解决此问题的根本方法在于降低商业银行贷款风险,缓解信贷配给.具体措施:一是建立商业银行进行信息搜寻的激励机制,二是建立融资企业的融资担保体系,使商业银行的贷款风险得以转嫁.     

The Impact of Basel II on Lending to Small- and Medium-Sized Firms: A Regulatory Policy Assessment Based on Spanish Credit Register Data

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated.     

Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence

In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model yields unbiased premium estimates for default swaps on investment grade issuers, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is relatively insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate.     

Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements

We characterize welfare maximizing capital requirement policies in a quantitative macrobanking model with household, firm, and bank defaults calibrated to Euro Area data. We optimize on the level of the capital requirements applied to each loan class and their sensitivity to changes in default risk. We find that getting the level right (so that bank failure risk remains contained) is of foremost importance, while the optimal sensitivity to default risk is positive but typically smaller than under Basel internal ratings based (IRB) formulas. Starting from low levels, savers and borrowers benefit from higher capital requirements. At higher levels, only savers prefer tighter requirements.     

信用制度变迁下的票据市场功能演进与中小企业融资模式选择

商业信用是信用制度的基础,票据则是在商业信用基础上所产生的最有代表性的信用工具。随着信用制度的发展变迁,票据发展出汇兑、支付、结算、融资等功能。在发达市场经济条件下,票据的核心功能最终演化为融资。中国票据市场服务于中国经济市场化转型的需要,在解决中小企业融资方面发挥了重要作用,但票据市场制度体系也需要与时俱进进行修复调整。票交所作为票据市场重要的制度创新,推动票据市场从区域分割、信息不透明、以纸质票据和线下操作为主的传统市场向全国统一、安全高效、电子化的现代市场转型。在我国经济从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,需要进一步加强票据市场基础设施建设和制度建设,深化票据市场为实体经济服务的功能,尤其是发挥好为中小企业融资的作用。     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

Bubbles,banks and financial stability

The macroeconomic impact of rational bubbles in a limited commitment economy crucially depends on whether banks or ordinary savers hold the bubble. Banks hold the bubble asset when their leverage is high, when long-term real interest rates are low or when lax supervision allows them to enjoy high deposit insurance subsidies. When banks are the bubble-holders, this amplifies the output boom by reducing loan–deposit rate spreads while the bubble survives but also deepens the recession when the bubble bursts. In contrast, the real impact of bubbles held by ordinary savers is more muted.     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

Pricing CDS spreads with Credit Valuation Adjustment using a mixture copula

Credit derivatives pricing models before Basel III ignored losses in market value stemming from higher probability of counterparty default. We propose a general credit derivatives pricing model to evaluate a Credit Default Swap (CDS) with counterparty risk, including the Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) in order to optimize the economic capital allocation. We work from the model proposed by Luciano (2003, Working Paper, International Center of Economic Research) and the general pricing representation established by Sorensen and Bollier (Financial Analysts Journal 1994;50(3):23–33) to provide a model close to the market practice, easy to implement and fitting with Basel III framework. We approach the dependence between counterparty risk and that of the reference entity with a technical tool: the copula, in particular, the mixture one that combines common “extreme” copulas. We study the CDS's vulnerability in extreme dependence cases. By varying Spearman's rho, the mixture copula covers a broad spectrum of dependence and ensures closed form prices. We end up with an application on real market data.